
I started out thinking that I was gonna sit down and tear AZ GM Josh Byrnes a new one for letting Dan Uggla get taken by the Rule 5 draft three years ago when he decided to sign free agent Orlando Hudson instead. Now, I’m not so sure. You see, I started looking at Uggla’s power numbers and then moved onto the more complicated/smarty stats and I came away unsure of how to swing. Through two full seasons in Florida and the first quarter of 2008, Dan Uggla has 71 homeruns. In the same span, Orlando Hudson has 28. Now that right there seems like a good enough reason to hop in the time machine and stop Josh Byrnes’ parents from ever conceiving their wunderkind of a GM son (it wouldn’t be enough to simply travel through time and just tell him not to make the deal–I need to stop him from ever being born. It’s science). Ah hell. Let’s just do it as a chart. Charts are fun:
Dan Uggla: .269/.339/.501, 71 HRs, .840 OPS, $1.1 million salary over three years.
Orlando Hudson: .317/.358/.490, 28 HRs, .848 OPS, $12.8 million salary over three years
Now I for one don’t care what a player makes each year in so much that if you’re producing at a solid level but would be considered overpaid, I don’t care. I do care, however, when a club has a limited budget and won’t/can’t spend more money to rectify a free agent mistake. But, I’m getting away from the point. It seems clear that Uggla has the obvious, flashy numbers that make him look valuable. He has way more HRs and RBI than Hudson (209 vs 153) and Uggla is just getting started in his career. If anything, his numbers are going to go up. What I did realize just by taking a deeper look was that Hudson is a lot better than I realized.
For starters, Hudson’s defensive abilities more than compensate for his lower offensive output. He saves the equivalent amount of runs that Uggla outproduces. Sure Gold Gloves are silly, but for the last two years, Hudson has earned both of them. From 2006-2007, Hudson’s FRAR (fielding runs above replacement player) was 27 runs better than Uggla, meaning he saved 27 more runs than Uggla. In the same period, Uggla “created” 28 more runs than Hudson with his bat.
And again, Hudson’s OPS has been decent for a second basemen. His OPS in the same span is the same as Uggla’s. Thus, Uggla’s higher runs and RBI totals for the last two years are partly due to his playing for a team that is more offensively efficient than Arizona.
Let me be clear: I would probably use the time machine to stop Josh Byrnes from signing Orlando Hudson if it meant that Dan Uggla would be placed into the everyday lineup (this could be considered a bit of a reach–there’s no guarantee he would have been given the shot he was given in AZ that he was in Florida). It’s just a much closer call than it was when I sat down to write this piece. And besides, who’s to say that the money saved from not signing Hudson wouldn’t have been spent on a bust of a free agent like Barry Zito.
Sources: Baseball Prospectus, Fan Graphs