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15 years at a total cost of $3 billion, CBS and ESPN have put a lot of eggs in what’s currently the hottest ticket in terms of conferences in all of college football, but is this a smart move?  I’m not so sure.

Yes, I still believe that the SEC is college football’s best conference due to the heavy hitters at the top (Florida and Alabama) and the overall powerhouse nature of other schools with post season aspirations and deep pockets like Georgia, LSU, Tennessee and Arkansas, but at the same time, this isn’t the SEC of the mid-aughts, and it’s future as the kings of college football is cloudy at best.

Of course, many of these schools will always be nationally recognized, but have we not learned anything from the Big 10’s recent foray into national television?  While the Big 10 has it’s own network and ties with ESPN, the conference isn’t nearly as strong as it was when talks were being bandied around.  While massive, national fanbases have their merit in terms of dollars and cents, does that really do anything for you if you’re forced to show an awful product, thusly turning off potential viewers?

This is the problem I could forsee the SEC running into, and after the jump, we take a look at why.

One of the biggest problems national fanbases have had with the Big 10 is overexposure.  People are, frankly, sick to death of seeing the same Midwestern powerhouses play over and over again in lieu of other teams that are more fresh and exciting.  This could be a huge problem down the road if the two networks get forced into broadcasting SEC games that aren’t nearly as potent as the hype would indicate.

But before we get into that subject, why am I making it sound like the SEC is in for some massive downturn in the near, near future?

Easy…and for three reasons.  One, the overall mercenary nature of the big players in the conference (i.e. the head coaches); two, the cyclical nature of the power transferring between conferences; and three, other programs catching up.

Lets be honest here…does anyone feel 100% certain that Urban Meyer and Nick Saban are going to stick around in the SEC?  Meyer is already being linked to Notre Dame and Saban thinks a three year tenure is akin to decades.  We don’t know if those two are even going to be around another three years at their respective schools let alone for 15.

But even if they leave, the SEC is still in good hands, right?  Well…next to those two, the highest profile coaches in the conference are Les Miles, Mark Richt and Steve Spurrier.  Spurrier is a relic who captains a despicably bland program without a large fanbase, Miles won’t ever be confused with Pete Carroll, Saban or Meyer and Richt, while a very capable coach, has as much sizzle as an ice cream sandwich.  If you’re putting your eggs in that basket a mere three years into the deal, that’s hardly getting your money’s worth.

Say Meyer and Saban bolt for less-green pastures to fertilize…is it a guarantee, even for programs as wealthy and strong as Alabama and Florida to replace them with other top coaches?  Hardly.  We’re not far removed from a near decade of Alabama suckitude, and the stink of the Ron Zook era in Gainesville is finally just getting washed out.  These programs aren’t guaranteed to be powerhouses for all eternity, and outside of that, there isn’t a whole lot to get excited about.

Now to the power shift argument.  It wasn’t long ago that the Big 10 was considered the strongest conference in college football, less than a decade to be accurate.  But now?  Shit, you have to pay fans from this conference to watch games that don’t involve their own schools, let alone other non-Big 10 fanbases.  While the network deal has been incredibly rewarding financially to every school in the conference, expecting it to last past the contract’s lifespan isn’t a guarantee because the product being displayed is clearly inferior.

Yet, it’s crazy to think the SEC won’t always be the king of the castle?  Hell, the SEC was terrible a decade ago.  The SEC has seen some AWFUL stretches conference-wide, and knowing the fickle nature of tha national college football landscape, how can we be certain that 15 years from now, the SEC will still be putting out a viable product?  We really can’t.

By now, it should be clear that I think this is an incredibly risky move.  A lot of that has to do with other school’s catching up to the SEC model.  While Big XII schools have been dipping into Texas for years for the top talent, nationwide, top programs are dipping into the South to do the same thing.  Ohio State, for example, has long had a strong presence in the South, especially in Florida and Georgia, and now schools like Michigan and Penn State are doing the same.  USC has found their way into the South, from Louisiana to Florida, and each year, more and more schools are getting Southern recruits, including also-rans like Purdue and North Carolina.

Now put these scenarios all together and see what you get…Meyer and Saban, the two fiercest recruiters in the conference leave, the power shifts to the Big XII (this is already starting), Big 10 (also starting) or Pac-10 (just kidding), and all of the sudden, Southern recruits, wanting to play for the best schools, go elsewhere.  Do we really think, if that happens, that the product the SEC will be putting out will be worth the steep investment?

I realize this is all prognostication, but you can already see some of this materializing.  The SEC isn’t the clear cut best conference in college football anymore, and with SEC powerhouses like Auburn and Tennessee being shells of their former, strong selves, is the conference wide depth that was greeted with cheers of “SEC!!! SEC!!!” in 2006 nearly as strong?  I’m saying no.

College football is a glorified beauty contest led by the most type A individuals imagineable.  These head coaches who run the powerhouses are less football coaches and more CEO, overseeing the entire program’s health from recruiting to on the field success to nationwide appeal.  It’s also a copycat sport, one where these coaches see what the prevailing trends are and exploit that.  Currently, the SEC has led the way with their reliance on speed and innovative schemes on both sides of the ball, but that’s clearly being spread across the coutnry as well, showing up in places from LA to Happy Valley, and the more ink these coaches get, the less of a stranglehold the SEC will have.

Now, I’m not saying this won’t be a great deal for ESPN and CBS.  The SEC still will have the great atmospheres and rabid fanbases and will probably always have a team or two in the national discussion, but the Big 10 has that now, and when you’re talking about deals in the BILLIONS, anything less than the most stellar of product will be a wasted investment.

This deal is going to line the pockets of every SEC team for the next 15 years.  But while this seems fantastic now, it’s hardly a lock for long term success.  I, for one, will be incredibly interested in seeing how this plays out in the SEC in the next few years, because if one of those dominos falls, I feel it could have a HUGE impact on the whole conference’s strength.  Be wary of good investments in the short-term, chances are good, ESPN and CBS aren’t going to be loving this deal down the road.

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