When we last checked in on the AL West, Texas held a comfortable 4.5 game lead over the Angels. The Rangers had a 66% chance of winning the division and heading to the playoffs for the first time since the days of devout roiders Pudge Rodriguez and Raffy Palmeiro (/Raul Ibanez’d). Fast forward to today, and the lead has shrunk to just 1.5 games. CoolStandings now projects only a 50% chance of Texas holding on to the division crown.

What happened?

1. The Rangers stopped piling on runs: The Rangers are averaging over 5 runs a game for the first 53 games of the season, but over the last 13 games, the team has only scored 45 runs (average of 3.5 runs/game). Ian “Finally Cycled Off Steroids” Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, and Michael Young all went into monster slumps. Those three will need to start hitting again soon, because in that ballpark, the team can’t expect their mediocre pitching staff to pick up the slack.

2. Josh Hamilton went on the DL: Josh Hamilton is overrated and injury prone. The fact that he was even in the MVP discussion last year was laughable. However, that doesn’t mean he’s not a useful player. Losing him for 4-6 weeks puts a wrench in the Rangers’ playoff plans, if for no other reason than it really hurts the team’s depth. Combine the loss of Hamilton with the team’s current offensive slump (see 1), and the Rangers’ time atop the AL West perch could be very short-lived.

3. The pitching flat sucks: Don’t let the 4.43 team ERA (which is middle of the pack-ish) fool you. The Rangers might have the worst pitching staff in Major League Baseball. If we look a little deeper than ERA at the Rangers’ Fielding Independent Pitching statistics, we see that Texas is dead last in MLB. The pitchers are reaping the benefits of having a much improved defense behind them, but their underlying skills are still as bad as ever. If the Rangers want to stay in the playoff race until the end, it may be time to tap their farm system (one of the best in baseball) for one or two good arms.

4. Artie Lange

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