Grading The 2004 Draft

To kick off our 2009 draft coverage in earnest here at MLB, it’s time to review the 2004 draft. Last year we graded the 2003 draft, and I was needled a bit for saying that Nick Markakis would end up being the best pick of that draft. I stand by it though. The only thing certain about the 2004 draft is that the #1 pick won’t be the best player in the draft, as his career is pretty much over. The theme of the 2004 draft was pitching. Specifically college pitching. 6 of the top 10 picks were college pitchers, and 3 of them went to Rice and were part of one of the greatest trios in college baseball history. It is incredible that they didn’t win the 2004 national title, although they did win it in 2003. Just taking a quick look, I have no idea who the best player of this draft is. I don’t think anyone has fulfilled their potential, but there are a few canditates. A pick by pick review after the jump.

1. San Diego: Matt Bush, SS, Mission Bay HS (California)

Bush wasn’t thought of as a top prospect, but the Padres took the local kid so they could save money. 5 years from that pick they are still reeling, as Bush hit just .219/.294/.276 in 4 minor league seasons. He converted to a pitcher and had a strong couple outings before needing Tommy John Surgery. His ineffectiveness plus immaturity off the field could spell the end of his career and make him just the 2nd #1 overall pick to never play in the big leagues.

Grade: F

2. Detroit: Justin Verlander, RHP, Old Dominion

Verlander has a career 106 ERA+, although only 2 of his seasons have been above average. He doesn’t strike a ton of guys out, and last year had barely a 2:1 K:BB ratio. The 2006 Rookie of the Year enjoys a reputation that outdistances his performance at the moment.

Grade: Honestly I’m willing to open it up to the floor for grades on him. I would say he’s a B+, because he had one very good year but has not been good since.

3. New York Mets: Phil Humber, RHP, Rice

One of the famed Rice trio, Humber was attractive because of his amazing splitter. He is one of my favorite pitchers to watch because he has fantastic stuff, but the results haven’t been there. Now 26, Humber came to the Twins in the Johan Santana trade and was recently designated for assignment. He cleared waivers and was sent to AAA. Not a lot of teams believe in Humber at the moment. I still think he can be a 3 starter for an MLB team though.

Grade: Has to be a D. Humber still has the talent, but he should have been an ace.

4. Tampa Bay: Jeff Niemann, RHP, Rice

The second of the Rice Owls, Niemann has only had brief time in the majors due to injury problems. Niemann has made three starts in 2009, with a 1.50 WHIP and just 9 K and 7 BB in 16.2 IP. Niemann probably works best out of the bullpen and he should end up there.

Grade: Niemann gets a D for me too, although he still has a chance to be an adequate big leaguer.

5. Milwaukee: Mark Rogers, RHP, Mt. Ararat HS (Maine)

Before Rick Porcello came along, Mark Rogers was the next big thing in prep pitching. A guy who was once thought to be an ace, Rogers had a low 90s fastball that sank and a potential hammer of a curveball. However, Rogers has had more surgeries than Joan Rivers (rim shot) which has limited his effectiveness. He had a career ERA of 4.99 and a WHIP of 1.64. Rogers has not pitched since 2006.

Grade: F

6. Cleveland: Jeremy Sowers, LHP, Vanderbilt

The Indians drafted Sowers hoping he’d be the next Tom Glavine. He has the same stuff as Glavine, but not the same control and thus, not the same results. Sowers struck out less than 7 hitters per 9 as a minor leaguer, and has had very little success as a major leaguer. He’s only 26 so there’s still a chance, but it doesn’t seem likely to happen for Sowers.

Grade: D

7. Cincinnati: Homer Bailey, RHP, La Grange HS (Texas)

I don’t toot my own horn all that often, but I have to on Bailey. Back when he was proclaimed as the next Beckett or Clemens, I was the lone dissenting voice saying he wouldn’t make it. He has one pitch he can throw for a strike, that being his fastball, and his fastball is fairly straight. The Reds certainly didn’t help his development, jumping him all over the place. Bailey has actually gotten worse after his promotion to the majors and subsequent demotion. As I said, control is a huge problem with him, as he has walked almost 4 batters per 9 over his pro career. With all the talk about him, he is only 23 so he has time to turn it around, and that is the only thing saving his grade from being worse.

Grade: C-

8. Baltimore: Wade Townsend, RHP, Rice

From the best pick of the 2003 draft to one of the worst of 2004. If there’s one thing I hate hate hate when teams do it’s draft a reliever. Townsend was a starter in college but his intensity and max effort delivery had him pegged as a reliever the whole way. And the Orioles still took him 8th. Townsend didn’t sign with the Orioles and was drafted 8th again the next year by Tampa. He had Tommy John surgery as well (a Rice pitcher with arm troubles? I’m shocked) and his career is essentially over.

Grade: F

9. Colorado: Chris Nelson, SS, Redan HS (Georgia)

Even though you probably haven’t heard of him unless you’re a Rockies fan or love minor league baseball, Nelson isn’t terrible. Like a few of our players above, Nelson has struggled with injuries. In 2005 he had a hamstring injury that cost him 2 months of the season. He also had some problems in 2006. He has a career .335 OBP, but really struggled last year in the California League. That is a very troubling thing. Nelson has also had trouble fielding.

Grade: Nelson has time to pick it up, and it’s tough to knock him too much for the injuries, but I’ll give him a D+

10. Texas: Thomas Diamond, RHP, U of New Orleans

Once part of the famed DVD trio (With John Danks and Edinson Volquez), Diamond’s career hasn’t taken off. Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Diamond has had arm troubles, having Tommy John surgery and missing the 2007 season. Diamond has a career ERA barely under 4, and a WHIP of 1.70.

Grade: D

11. Pittsbugh: Neil Walker, C, Pine Richland HS (Pennsylvania)

Walker was once the jewel of the Pirates farm system. A local boy who was supposed to play catcher and be the next Jason Kendall. Walker eventually had to move to 3B and his progress has stalled a bit. Walker had a god-awful year at AAA last year (.694 OPS) and has struggled a bit defensively. It is unlikely he will ever have a major role as a big leaguer, although he still is only 22 so there is still time.

Grade: D+

12. Anaheim: Jered Weaver, RHP, Long Beach St.

A Boras client, Weaver got more money than #1 pick Matt Bush. Weaver is a big kid who hasn’t had a below average season at the major league level yet. He’s been great so far in 2009, striking out 4 times as many hitters as he walks. Weaver is a flyball pitcher who has given up around 1 homer per 9 innings over his career. Although he doesn’t have dominant stuff, Weaver has been a very dependable pitcher and has a long big league career ahead of him. He’s not a star, but has been well worth the money.

Grade: A-

13. Montreal: Bill Bray, LHP, William and Mary

Now a Red, Bray has not pitched wonderfully, but he has at least been an adequate reliever at the major league level. Not great for the 13th overall pick, but not terrible either.

Grade: B-

14. Kansas City: Billy Butler, 1B, Wolfson Sr. HS

Butler was thought of as a signability pick when he signed, but he hasn’t transfered that production to the major league level, with just a career OPS+ of 96. Still only 23, Butler has plenty of time to make his impact at the major league level. He’s struggled so far this season but I still believe he has a shot to be a good power hitter over the course of his career.

Grade: B-

15. Arizona: Stephen Drew, SS, Florida State

If you are a left-handed hitter, the best thing you could ever do for yourself is go here and check out Stephen Drew’s scouting video. Back when these were actually of some length on MLB.com I used to watch every single one before the draft. And just to set the record straight, I said before the draft even started that Drew would be the best player out of the 2004 first round. Just look at that swing. He overstrides a bit, but other than that that baby is poetry. Stephen Drew is one of my favorite players ever just because of that 4 minute video.

Grade: I don’t give a shit about the numbers, A

16. Toronto: David Purcey, LHP, Oklahoma

The biggest knock on Purcey was that his stuff wasn’t very good. His fastball was just average, he had a slurvey curveball, and his changeup was straight. When you look at his major league numbers, this is fairly apparent. Purcey has a career ERA+ of just 74. His minor league numbers are a bit better, as he struck out about a batter per inning, although his best work came at Dunedin where he was clearly overmatching hitters due to his pitchability. Purcey also struggled with walks coming up through the system, and that is his biggest obstacle to overcome. It’s tough to succeed at the major league level with just average stuff, and it’s tough to succeed with poor control, but it’s impossible to succeed with both.

Grade: C-

17. Los Angeles: Scott Elbert, LHP, Seneca HS (Missouri)

Elbert almost immediately shot to the top of the Dodgers prospect rankings. The lefty combined above average stuff with good pitchability, which is rarely seen in a high schooler. Elbert struck out over 10 batters per 9 over the course of his minor league career, but also walked 5 per 9. Elbert has 10 career major league innings, and is just 23, so his career appears to be right on track.

Grade: Incomplete

18. Chicago (AL): Josh Fields, 3B, Oklahoma State

I never liked the Josh Fields pick. Players who play football and baseball in college rarely are ready for the demands of a professional baseball season. Add that to the fact that they’re at least 3 years behind a high school pick and you have some problems. True to form, Fields has struggled in his career, even though he was always tabbed as the next big thing. He has 512 strikeouts in 5 minor league seasons, or nearly one-third of his minor league ABs. Being promoted and demoted a lot didn’t help either, nor did being shifted from 3B to left field and back again. Fields is (I believe) out of options, so it’s possible that if he is going to get his career on track, it won’t be with the White Sox.

Grade: C-

19. St. Louis: Chris Lambert, RHP, Boston College

Lambert dominated in 2005 in high A, with just a 2.63 ERA, but it all went South for him after that, going just 3-8 with a 6.35 ERA in AA. In 2007, Lambert was the PTBNL in the trade that sent Mike Maroth to the Cardinals. Lambert made three career starts with the Tigers, and finished with a 78 ERA+

Grade: D-

20. Minnesota: Trevor Plouffe, SS, Crespi Carmelite HS (California)

Plouffe was one of the top ranked IF prospects in the 2004 draft, but let’s not mince words here: he sucks. He has shown himself to be a capable defender, and he’s finally gotten his ass to AAA, but it’s a long road to Minnesota. Plouffe’s career OPS is under .700, although he did spend some time in the Florida State League, so he perhaps gets cut some slack for that. Plouffe isn’t a very patient hitter, as he doesn’t strike out or walk a lot, but he isn’t a good enough hitter to overcome that. He is a fast player, but hasn’t shown that on the basepaths, with just 36 career steals. The best thing you can say about him is that he is just 23 and in AAA, so perhaps he could be a utility player in a couple years.

Grade: D-

21. Philadelphia: Greg Golson, OF, Connally HS (Texas)

The Phillies love their athletes. Sometimes it works out well. Other times it produces guys like Greg Golson. Golson’s big problems were in plate discipline. He never struck out less than 100 times in a full minor league season, and his career high in walks is just 30. In his only 6 career major league ABs, Golson struck out 4 times.

Grade: F

22. Minnesota: Glen Perkins, LHP, Minnesota

When the Twins draft hometown kids early in the draft it tends to go well (see: Joe Mauer). Perkins is a perfect pitcher for Minnesota. He doesn’t have fantastic stuff, so he never has had the gaudy strikeout totals, but he has improved his control every step of the way. He was nearly unhittable in 2007 as a lefty reliever, and although he struggled a bit last year as a starter, this year he has been the Twins best starter to date. He never will be an ace, but the Twins drafted him to be a solid major leaguer, and that’s what they got.

Grade: B+

23. New York: Philip Hughes, RHP, Foothill HS (California)

Hughes almost threw a no-hitter in his second career start, but injuries have stalled his career a bit. His minor league numbers are very impressive, and in his lone start of 2009 he went 6 innings without giving up a run. He has all the stuff to be a dominant ace, Yankees fans just need to hope his health holds up.

Grade: Incomplete

24. Oakland: Landon Powell, C, South Carolina

I loved watching Landon Powell play at South Carolina. Quite simply, he was a fatass who could hit the shit out of  the ball. He probably was never going to stick at catcher though, and the A’s mis-scouted him there. There are also some legendary tales about the size of Powell’s father. Now 27, Powell finally made the big leagues, but his chances of an impactful big league career are basically nil.

Grade: D

25. Minnesota: Kyle Waldrop, RHP, Farragut HS (Tennessee)

Once part of the best rotation in minor league baseball, Waldrop has stalled a bit. Now 23, Waldrop is back in A+ for the third season. Working out of the bullpen, he has a 1.59 ERA in just over 11 IP. It’s a long way to the show for him.

Grade: D

26. Oakland: Richard Robnett, CF, Fresno State

Robnett spent 5 years in the A’s farm system, with 58 homers in 449 games. He had a huge problem with plate discipline, striking out almost 5 times as much as he walked in 2007. In 2008 he was traded to the Cubs along with Justin Sellers for Michael Wuertz.

Grade: D

27. Florida: Taylor Tankersley, LHP, Alabama

Tankersley spent time both in 2006 and 2007 at the major league level, and was very good in a relief role. He was the Marlins closer in waiting for what seemed like forever. Now in AAA, Tankersley will have surgery to repair his elbow. Still, his impact in the big leagues has been signidicant, and still has a good career ahead of him.

Grade: B

28. Los Angeles: Blake DeWitt, 2B, Sikeston HS (Missouri)

DeWitt has settled into a utility role for the Dodgers, and got some pub for Rookie of the Year last year, although he had just a 91 OPS+. He brings some versatility defensively and a high contact approach to hitting. Not the player the Dodgers thought they were getting, but you can’t call him a bust, especially since he’s only 23.

Grade: C+

29. Kansas City: Matt Campbell, LHP, South Carolina

Campbell struggled from the get-go for Kansas City, and never made it above High A ball. He had a career ERA of 4.62 and a career WHIP of 1.47

Grade: F

30. Texas: Eric Hurley, Wolfson Sr. HS (Florida)

Hurley was once one of the hottest pitching prospects in baseball, and for good reason. He has fantastic career minor league numbers for the Rangers, and is a big kid with good mechanics and good stuff. He has a very loose arm motion, and has a very good slider. Hurley got 5 starts with the Rangers last year, with little success, but he’s just 23.

Grade: Incomplete

Notable Supplemental picks: Huston Street (Oakland) 40th overall

Other notable picks: Hunter Pence (Houston) 64th overall, Dustin Pedroia (Boston) 65th overall, Andrew Sonnanstine (Tampa) 375th overall, Mark Reynolds (Arizona) 476th overall,