As we hit the second week of the 2009 season, things start to take shape. Heath Bell has more saves right now than any team in the AL Central has wins. The Padres are the winningest team in baseball. Sure, that makes sense.

Actually, as any sane baseball fan knows, you don’t really start to learn things until we get into the summer, when the luck starts to even out and the cream rises (unless you’re the Twins and you almost clutch hit your way to a Division title). However, after watching a week of baseball, there are a few things that I definitely know about the 2009 season:

1. The Padres won’t have a 5 game winning streak the rest of the year.

Currently on a 5 gamer (maybe I should pick them in Streak for the Cash) the Padres have one of the weakest 25 man rosters in all of baseball. Besides Adrian Gonzalez and Brian Giles, the Dads don’t really have anyone who can stretch out an at bat for them. Short at bats + bad hitters = a lot of low scoring games. And a lot of losses

2. Evan Longoria is good, but not this good.

Hitting .467 with 5 homers, Evan Longoria is the toast of Major League Baseball right now. Is he a good hitter? Sure. Is he this good? No way. Longoria has always been a high OBP player, but hasn’t showcased a ton of power. He had 27 homers last year, and I think that’s actually about where he settles in this year, which is odd considering he has about 40 more games to work with. Longoria’s calling card is his defense, and he is already one of the best third basemen in baseball. If he can hit anywhere close to this however he could be the most valuable player in all of baseball.

3. The AL Central is garbage.

The Indians start out 0-5. Cliff Lee already has 2 losses this year, when he had 3 last year. The Royals are this year’s sexy pick but they have Sidney Ponson in the rotation while Luke Hochevar rots in AAA. Nice. The White Sox have a good offense, but a suspect pitching staff and horrible defense. The Tigers are shitty, and the Twins? Well let’s just say they miss Joe Mauer. Their offense is awful, scoring just 26 runs through 7 games.

4. The Twins Are Who I Thought They Were

Coming into 2009 I thought the Twins would take very good defense, pretty good starting pitching, and a shitty offense and try to win a division with it. So far it’s not working, in part because the Twins starting pitching has been less than excellent. This should be helped by the return of Scott Baker, who will be worth about 3 wins more than RA Dickey, the guy who he is replacing. So far the Joe Crede experiment has been working, as the veteran has played great defense and his offense should improve. And Denard Span is for real. The centerfielder was worth about 3 wins last year, partly because of his defense, partly because of his great walk rate at the top of the order. His walk rate has improved this year and his great defense has continued.

5. The National League Sucks

No wonder Albert Pujols puts up great numbers, look who he has to play against.* Take a look at, for example, the batting average leaders in the NL compared to those in the AL. Interestingly enough, some of the best players in baseball (especially fantasy wise) are in the NL: Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Chase Utley, etc. But the NL teams just aren’t as good as the AL. Are their GM’s not as smart? Does the DH lead to the AL having more talent? Discuss.
Bonus sappy #6. It’s Just a Game
If there’s one thing the first week of the season has taught us, it’s that there are far more important things to be worried about. The death of Phillies announcer Harry Kalas combined with the untimely death of Mark Fidrych and the terrible tragedy of Nick Adenhart remind us that taking an extra couple seconds out of your day to talk to your wife, husband (for Hef) , kids, girlfriend, friends, whatever is a little more important than watching every out of every baseball game like a madman. Or, if you choose to obsess over every out like I do, make sure you’re having fun doing it.
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