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Last year, Mariners GM Bill Bavasi thought his team was an ace pitcher away from the playoffs, so he pulled what was easily the most lopsided trade of the last decade when he traded Adam Jones, George Sherrill, and three minor league pitching prospects for Orioles pitcher Erik Bedard. Trading Jones straight up for Bedard would have been slightly lopsided in the O’s favor once you factor in years of team control and money. Throwing in four extra players is the stuff that gets general managers fired, which is exactly what happened to Bavasi (who now works for my Reds – w00t!).
In his stead is Jack Zduriencik, formerly of the Milwaukee Brewers. Jack has already exhibited a very keen eye for talent by pulling off several shrewd trades and signings. Let’s take a look at a few.
Outfield: Quickly realizing how easy it is to find decent bullpen arms, Jack’s first move was to ship two relievers (J.J. Putz, Sean Green) along with CF Jeremy Reed and 2B Luis Valbuena in a three team trade that netted the Mariners outfielders Endy Chavez and Franklin Gutierrez. Living in Cleveland, I go to more than my share of Indians games, and Gut was easily my favorite Indian. He effortlessly plays the outfield – he is without question the best defensive corner outfielder in the league. In Seattle, no longer blocked by Grady Sizemore, he’ll finally get the chance to show that he might be the best defensive center fielder in the league, too. At the plate, he’s no great shakes. He has plenty of power but awful pitch recognition, not to mention Safeco Park kills righties. Of course Gutierrez wasn’t acquired for his bat. The other acquired outfielder, Endy Chavez, is a similar great glove/no bat player. He’ll get plenty of innings in left field (one of the more difficult left fields to play in MLB). In one offseason, Zduriencik turned a mediocre center fielder (the aforementioned Reed) and the worst defensive left fielder (Raul Ibanez) in the game into likely the best defensive outfield in baseball.
Infield: The other piece acquired in the trade was former Mets pitcher Aaron Heilman, a decent reliever who demanded an opportunity to show he can also be a shitty starter. That opportunity won’t come in Seattle, though, as he was flipped to Chicago for Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno. Garrett Olson is probably already as good as Heilman, with the added benefit of being left-handed. He’ll start the year in AAA. Ronny Cedeno is a middle infielder with a great minor league pedigree who has yet to show anything at the major league level. He’ll likely push fat shortstop Yuni Betancourt and/or second baseman Jose Lopez. Yuni has regressed mightily the last two seasons (especially defensively) after initially showing a lot of promise. With a good spring, Cedeno could easily end up taking his job. Two final moves relating to the infield were the signings of Russell Branyan and Chris Shelton. Russell mashes righties, and Shelton does the same to lefties. They will be a match made in platoon heaven. The two were signed to really cheap deals and will represent a huge upgrade to the black hole that was last year’s first base combo of Richie Sexson and Miguel Cairo (!!). In signing Branyan/Shelton, Zduriencik showed just how easy it is to find productive first base options without breaking the bank. Giving big money to a first baseman is almost always a bad idea (Pujols notwithstanding).
Veterans: Adrian Beltre and Ichiro are Seattle’s two best position players. Adrian Beltre is one of the most underappreciated players in the game. He combines slightly above average offense with the best third base defense in the league. Ichiro is, in my opinion, overrated by Seattle fans, but he’s still a valuable player (~3 WAR projection or so). Felix Hernandez is the best young pitcher in the game. Erik Bedard is also very good but health concerns will always be an issue with him. Brandon Morrow will likely emerge as the #3 starter, and the back end of the rotation will be filled by money stealers Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn.
Upside: If a few things break Seattle’s way, the team could easily contend for the division crown in a very weak AL West. First, Erik Bedard will have to stay healthy and pitch 180+ innings. Former uber-prospect Jeff Clement will need to show he can play catcher at the major league level. Lastly, one of Wlad Balentien (unlikely), Ronny Cedeno (probably), or Yuni Betancourt (possibly) will have to take a major step forward this year to help the offense score some runs. That said, I just can’t see all of those things coming together, so I’ll put the Mariners on the outside looking in come playoff time. Regardless, the Mariners are finally in good hands and should return to prominence sooner rather than later.
79 wins.
Addendum: A few hours after I drafted this, the Mariners went and signed themselves a washed up slugger future Hall of Famer. If Griffey is used only as a DH against right handed pitchers, he’ll be okay. 350-400 PAs of roughly .350-.360 wOBA has value. If, however, they use him against lefties or, god forbid, play him in the outfield, he’ll give back every last ounce of that value.




worst lineup in baseball, and you give them 79 wins?
[deleted, OT]
This is a very quick/dirty way of doing it, but they were a 67 true talent team last year (pyth-wise). Just cleaning up their 1B/DH black holes is worth at least 5-6 wins. F-Gut in center over Reed is another 2 wins.
That’s 75 wins right there, without even accounting for upside from the young’uns. (Clement, Felix, Cedeno, …)
[try to keep it on subject fellas. --USS Mariner]
i just don’t see it, Nick. Especially since the #1 pitcher has yet to be the guy everyone thought he could be.
Really, shouldn’t the Angels take this division by 5-7 games?
Last year they won 61 games but the division has gotten worse with the Mariners getting much better. I say 72.
*without
Felix has been worth 3.8, 4, and 3.8 wins the last three years. That ranks 17th in all pitchers in that time frame.
He is 22 years old, younger than supposed uber-prospect David Price.
i can see 72. I think 70 at most.
i know he is young, but a lot of mileage already on that young arm.
[deleted, picking nits]
fuck!
that’s a typo.
will be fixed eventually.
I’ll probably delete your comment to make it look like it never happened, fyi.
The Braves loss is the Mariners loss
/I really wanted to pulverize the Braves with Old Griffey jokes all year…fuck
That’s what I would do
btw- Mariners suck
Why not just delete Happy from existence? That’s what Biff Tannen would do.
Nick whats up on the Fantasy League?
But if I’m deleted from existence, who’s going to…damnit I haven’t done shit.
bo: i’ll get you the invite tonight when i get home. remind me if i don’t.
nick, send one to pkiguy too
Ichiro, Griffey, Branyan, Beltre, Lopez, Clement is a pretty nice top 6 against right handed pitchers. Just because you haven’t heard of a few of those guys doesn’t mean they can’t hit.
Against lefties, they may struggle, but Balentein and Shelton will probably get plenty of at-bats.
I agree Yuni is a huge drag on the offense, but maybe Cedeno up-ends him.
any room in the fantasy baseball league? if so i want in.
Me too.
Felix is the best young pitcher in the game? The fuck?
Who’s better? Not Lincecum.
Ah, the fuck he isn’t.
VORPIE FIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!111!!!11!1!eleventyhundredth!!11
No way. First of all, Lincecum is awesome…but if you put him in a park that is friendly to lefties, with a DH, and in a better overall league, his numbers would nosedive. That’s what kind of environment Felix operates in.
Lincecum plays in a park that really suppresses left hand hitters and in a weak league.
Lincecum also strikes out more hitters. He also has had two FIP’s lower than anything Hernandez has ever done. I’ll take Lincecum’s career and be correct.
i’m pretty salty that Zduriencik got away from the Brewers. the guy knows talent. IMO, Felix and Lincecum are 1A and 1B. they both are great pieces to build around.
Who is the Branyan you speak of? Russell the Muscle?
No shit he strikes out more hitters and no shit his FIP is better. I gave you the reasons why. Felix plays in a park that lefties can hit homers out of easier. Put Lincecum in the same environment and see how good he looks.
And coming from a guy who doesn’t believe in DIPS, citing FIP seems like a waste.
Plus Felix is 2 years younger.
Pitching isn’t necessarily like hitting where you get better as you get older. Think of all the extra miles on Lincecum’s arm and yet he’s still better.
Lincecum pitches in the 11th best hitters, park, Hernandez the 24th
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
AT&T is more homer friendly as well.
That table doesn’t look at handedness, unfortunately, which is the crux of my argument. Both guys crush righties.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/home-run-park-factor-a-new-approach/
Check out the RF and RCF splits for each park.
Huge M’s fan, born and raised in Seattle.
I am probably the most optimistic i have been since ‘01. Forget the Richie Sexson’s of the world, let’s see what we can do with the Balentien’s, the Clement’s, and F-Gut’s.
Young talent. Fun to watch. I’d be very pleased with 75 wins. And i think it will happen.