A Cubs Preview

An outdated reference to Cubs futility and heartbreak

In anticipation of the coming baseball season, we will be previewing all 30 teams over the next month.  To see all of our team previews, please click here.

The winter following the 2008 season has been a fascinating one for the Chicago Cubs. On the one hand, they were coming off 97 wins and back-to-back NL Central titles. On the other hand, they were swept from the playoffs both times. GM Jim Hendry had two choices in the offseason: chalk up their recent postseasons to bad luck and make a few minor tweaks to a 97-win team, or make significant changes in hopes that they don’t make it three heartbreaking postseasons in a row. It appears as though Hendry chose the latter.

Players that made significant contributions in 2008 that will be gone in 2009 include Mark DeRosa, Jim Edmonds, and Kerry Wood. To a lesser extent, there is Ronny Cedeno, Michael Wuertz, and former top prospect Felix Pie. Newcomers will be Milton Bradley, Kevin Gregg, Aaron Miles, and Aaron Heilman (puke). Sorry, I just puked. There will also be continued Jake Peavy trade rumors until Peavy is actually traded or until the July 31 deadline.
More on that in a second.

Most of the core players from the 2008 Cubs will remain in 2009, but many Cub fans believe that the heart and soul of that team won’t be. Ask a Cub fan whom their team’s MVP in 2008 was and most of them will tell you it was Mark DeRosa. It’s an easy argument to make after DeRosa had a career year hitting .285/.376/.481 while also making significant contributions at 4 different defensive positions. Then again, it’s tough to bank on a player’s age-33 season when it was such an outlier to the rest of his career, so the safe bet on DeRosa is that he’ll show some regression this season while playing in Cleveland. Regardless, replacing DeRosa’s 23 Win Shares from 2008 is a huge concern considering that the new guy is presumed to be Aaron Miles.

The wild card for the Cubs this year will be Milton Bradley. When healthy, Milton Bradley has shown the ability to be one of the better hitters in all of baseball, plus he’s uncertifiably insane, which is always fun. He has always shown the ability to get on base (topped with his league-leading .436 OBP in 2008), but his inability to stay healthy throughout his career kept many teams from pursuing him in free agency this off-season. In the last 5 seasons, Bradley has averaged just under 100 games played per year, and when the Cubs’ alternative right fielder is the inept Kosuke Fukudome, it will be important for Bradley to be on the field as much as possible.

Finally, there’s the Jake Peavy situation. As if this potential trade isn’t mentioned ad nauseum by local Chicago media already, I figure it’ll get even more publicity as soon as something happens to one of the Cubs’ current starting pitchers. If there’s one thing we know about Carlos Zambrano, it’s that he inexplicably misses starts from time to time with various ailments, and if there’s one thing we know about Rich Harden, it’s that he can’t make it to the 7th inning. I figure that the first time one of those two things happens, the media in Chicago will be going nuts for the Cubs to pull the trigger on Jake Peavy. Is it the right play? No way.

Granted when he’s healthy, Jake Peavy is one of the best pitchers in the league. He strikes out 9 per 9, he doesn’t give up many hits (relative to guys who do), and his ERA has been under 3.00 in four of the last five years. These are all good things. But let’s look at the bad. After 2007, he was coming off three straight seasons of pitching at least 200 innings. In 2008, he only pitched in 173. Why did he pitch in fewer innings? Because he was experiencing elbow pain in his throwing arm and missed 6 or 7 starts. Why was he experiencing elbow pain in his throwing arm? Because he throws a lot of sliders. Why does he throw a lot of sliders? Because that’s his out pitch. What the frig is my point? My point is that the reason he has been one of baseball’s best pitchers for the last five years is because he has a wicked slider to compliment a capable fastball. But if the guy is starting to show signs of elbow trouble, you can bet that he’ll have to cut down on the number of sliders he’ll be throwing in the future. And with a fastball that runs 92-94 mph, what does that make him? Well potentially, it makes him an average pitcher rather than the Cy Young candidate the Cubs thought they were trading for.

So where does that leave the 2009 Cubs? Well if the over/under for this team were set at 95 wins, I’d feel completely comfortable taking the under as they’ll lose at least a few wins without 2008 Mark DeRosa. Nevertheless, a core remains that figures to continue making the Cubs the class of the NL Central. They’ll be in the playoffs for a 3rd year in a row. Just don’t trade the farm for Jake Peavy.