Which POY Award Leads To Pro Success?

With Awards season afoot in college football, it got me thinking: since we all know that winning a Heisman Trophy doesn’t necessarily lead to success in the NFL (right Eric Crouch?), which award does lead to the most success in its respective pro-league?

I’ll be looking at the last decade of awards in the four major pro sports. The respective awards I’ll be basing this on are the Heisman (college football), Naismith (college basketball), Hobey Baker (college hockey) and Golden Spikes (college baseball). There are alternate awards for both basketball (Wooden) and baseball (Dick Howser) but basically by a flip of a coin I decided on the Naismith and Golden Spikes.

One final note, the year’s for Hobey and Heisman are a bit different… the Hobey for 2008 corresponds with the Heisman for 2007, and so on.

2008

Heisman: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida-3286 yards passing, 895 rushing, 55 Total TD

Naismith: Tyler Hansbrough, F, North Carolina-22.6 PPG, 10.3 RPG

Golden Spikes: Buster Posey, C, Florida State-.463/.566/.879, 26 HR, 1.17 ERA in 7.2 IP

Hobey: Kevin Porter, F, Michigan-33G, 30 A, 15 PPG, 7 GWG

This one is largely unresolved. Two of the players are still in college, one is playing minor league baseball, and one is in the NHL. Tebow probably will make a better Governor of Florida than NFL QB, and Hansbrough hopefully is brushing up on his European languages. For now, since Porter (5-5–10 in 23 games) is the lone player playing in the highest level of his respective league, he has the edge, although when it’s all said and done, I fully expect Posey, the top Giants prospect, to have the best career.

Advantage: Hobey

2007

Heisman: Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State- 2542 yards, 30 TD, 65.3 completion%

Naismith: Kevin Durant, F, Texas-25.8 PPG, 11.1 RPG

Golden Spikes: David Price, LHP, Vanderbilt-11-1, 2.63 ERA, .95 WHIP, 194K

Hobey: Ryan Duncan, F, North Dakota- 31 G, 26 A, 17 PPG

Yet another largely unresolved class, but it will boil down to Durant and Price. Smith was drafted by the Baltimore Ravens, but hasn’t seen much playing time, and doesn’t figure to anytime soon behind Joe Flacco. Duncan, just a Sophomore when he won the Hobey, had a less impressive Junior year, and has been disappointing so far in his senior season for the Sioux, with less than a point per game. Durant is averaging 22 points for the last place Oklahoma City Thunder, but has seen a real dropoff in his rebounding numbers. Price hasn’t seen much MLB time, but is the top prospect in the Tampa Bay system, and a top 3 prospect in all of baseball. He eventually should have the best career.

Advantage: Naismith

2006

Heisman: Reggie Bush, RB, USC- 1740 yards, 8.7 YPC, 16 TD, 

Naismith: JJ Redick, G, Duke- 26.8 PPG, 42.1 3PT%

Golden Spikes: Tim Lincecum, RHP, Washington- 12-4, 1.94 ERA, 199 K

Hobey: Matt Carle, D, Denver- 11G, 42A

This is the first year on our list where all four are in the pros. JJ Redick is the easiest to dismiss, as he has been regulated to the bench in Orlando. Matt Carle had a great start to his career in San Jose, signing right after Denver was eliminated in the NCAA Tournament, and he put up 6 points in 12 games. Carle has since been traded to Tampa Bay and then to Philadelphia, where he has been largely unimpressive.

Reggie Bush was thought to be the biggest lock in history to go #1 overall in the NFL Draft, but Houston went with DE Mario Williams instead. It’s starting to look like a smart move. Bush has been unimpressive running the ball, and is just starting to find his niche as a reciever/return guy. Tim Lincecum won the 2008 NL Cy Young, and is on the short list of players you would choose to start your team with.

Advantage: Golden Spikes

2005

Heisman: Matt Leinart, QB, USC- 3322 yards, 33 TD, 65.3 competion%

Naismith: Andrew Bogut, C, Utah- 20.4 PPG, 12.2 RPG, 1.9 BPG

Golden Spikes: Alex Gordon, 3B, Nebraska- .365/.493/.754, 18 HR, 12 SB, 47BB, 34K

Hobey: Marty Sertich, C, Colorado College- 27G, 37A

This list can be characterized by two words: unfulfilled expectations. Leinart has had an up and down pro career, and had his starting job snatched from him by Kurt Warner.

Andrew Bogut has been largely unspectacular, and a defensive liability for Milwaukee.

Alex Gordon was at one time the #2 ranked prospect in baseball by Baseball America, but has a career OPS+ of just 98.

Sertich, who signed as a free agent with the Dallas Stars after his Senior season, has played mostly in the AHL. Of these four, I expect Gordon to pick it up the most.

Advantage: Golden Spikes

2004

Heisman: Jason White, QB, Oklahoma- 3846 yards, 40 TD, 61.6 completion%

Naismith: Jameer Nelson, G, St. Joeseph’s- 20.6 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.0 SPG

Golden Spikes: Jered Weaver, RHP, Long Beach State: 15-1, 1.63 ERA, 213 K

Hobey: Junior Lessard, RW, Minnesota-Duluth, 32G, 31A

Although Jason White holds Oklahoma records for both career passing yards and career passing TDs, he is out of football, mostly due to two balky ACLs.

Jameer Nelson has put up solid numbers running the Orlando Magic, but has been unspectacular.

Weaver has been a very solid 3-4 starter type, with a career ERA+ of 122. He had a career high 152 strikeouts last season.

Lessard, like Sertich, signed with the Dallas Stars upon graduating, and has spent more time in the AHL than NHL. He has posted numbers of 1-1–2 in 19 games with the Lightning this season.

Advantage: Golden Spikes

2003

Heisman: Carson Palmer, QB, USC- 3942 yards, 33TD, 63.2 completion%

Naismith: TJ Ford, G, Texas- 15 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 7.7 APG, 2 SPG

Golden Spikes: Rickie Weeks, 2B, Southern- .500/.619/.987, 16 HR, 27 SB, 46 BB, 15 HPB, 17 K

Hobey: Peter Sejna, LW, Colorado College- 36G, 46A

This is actually a tougher one to go with than at first glance. Carson Palmer has struggled with injuries, both knee and arm problems have ruined parts of seasons for him, but owns one of the best arms in football.

TJ Ford of course has had spinal injury issues, and recently was traded from the Raptors to the Pacers and is currently averaging 14.6 PPG and 5.4 APG.

Weeks put up one of the greatest college seasons ever (a .500 average!?) but has been inconsistent as a pro, battling, hey what else, injuries. Sloppy defense could force a move to center field, which is probably his best bet to blossom into a player worthy of the #2 overall pick.

Sejna struggled through four seasons being shuttled between the NHL and AHL. He is now playing in Zurich, where last year he had 16 goals and 21 assists.

Advantage: Heisman

2002

Heisman: Eric Crouch, QB, Nebraska- 1261 rushing yards, 28 total TD

Naismith: Jason Williams, G, Duke- 21.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 5.3 APG

Golden Spikes: Khalil Greene, SS, Clemson- .470/.552/.877, 27 HR, 17 SB, 46BB, 22K

Hobey: Jordan Leopold, D, Minnesota- 20G, 28A

Since he was used in the lede (pronounced “lead” like the element Pb), Crouch probably won’t be winning this one. Converted to safety, Crouch never took off in the NFL, and his post Heisman life is probably most known for him showing up to a future ceremony wearing a button-up and jeans, rather than suit and tie.

Williams was a lottery pick by the Chicago Bulls, but a motorcycle accident derailed his career and now he’s an announcer for ESPN.

Khalil Greene, recently traded to the Cardinals, has unfulfulled potential, with a career line of just .248/.304/.427. Already 29, Greene’s numbers will get a boost by playing in St. Louis, but perhaps his career was made by one excellent Junior season.

Leopold played in a Stanley Cup with Calgary, and although his overall numbers aren’t very impressive (94 career points in 298 career NHL games) he plays well in his own zone and is still a talented player.

Advantage: Hobey

2001

Heisman: Chris Weinke, QB, Florida State- 4167 yards, 33 TD, 61.7 completion%

Naismith: Shane Battier, F, Duke- 19.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.8 APG

Golden Spikes: Mark Prior, RHP, USC- 15-1, 1.69 ERA, 202K, 18 BB

Hobey: Ryan Miller, G, Michigan State- 31-5, 1.32 GAA, .950 save%, 10 SO

Chris Weinke led the nation in passing yards his Senior season, and let the Noles to the title game en route to being the oldest Heisman winner ever, but professionally his job has been professional clipboard holder.

Battier has developed into one of the better defenders in the NBA, and his offense has come along as well, as he is averaging close to 10 ppg this year and he is shooting 50% from three.

Prior has been called the best college righthander ever, and the best pitching prospect ever, but a near 100 IP jump from 2002 to 2003 is thought to have helped facilitate the arm troubles that have bothered him since.

It is commonly said that no goalie will ever win the Hobey again because of the season that Ryan Miller had. He has blossomed into one of the better goalies in the NHL, and is thought to be a lock to be on the 2010 US Olympic Team.

Advantage: Hobey

2000

Heisman: Ron Dayne, RB, Wisconsin- 1834 yards, 19 TD, 6 YPC*

Naismith: Kenyon Martin, F/C, Cincinnati- 18.9 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 107 blocks

Golden Spikes: Kip Bouknight, RHP, South Carolina, 17-1, 2.81 ERA, 143 K

Hobey: Mike Mottau, D, Boston College- 6G, 37A

At first glance, Ron Dayne’s numbers look impressive, but not blow you away impressive. But it has to be remembered that his Heisman was partially a career achievement award for breaking Ricky Williams’s all time rushing yards mark. Dayne has bounced around the NFL, playing 4 seasons with the Giants, one with Denver, and currently is in his second with Houston. He has rushed for 28 TDs in his seven seasons, and has a ypc of 3.8

Martin, who also is the last college senior to be the #1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, has been hampered by injuries throughout his career with the Nets and Nuggets. For his career he has averaged 14.4 PPG and 7.2 RPG. He also averages over a block per game, and played in an NBA Finals with New Jersey.

I’ll admit, I had to look Bouknight up. Now 29, Bouknight has never played in the majors. He spent 2008 at AA Reading in the Phillies organization, where he posted a 6.95 ERA.

After winning the Hobey at BC, Mottau played 19 games with the Rangers over two seasons, and four with the Flames in 2002-03. He then played in the AHL for four years, but has made his way onto the New Jersey Devils, where he is playing well on their blueline.

Advantage: Naismith

1999

Heisman: Ricky Williams, RB, Texas- 2327 yards, 29TD, 6 YPC

Naismith: Elton Brand, F, Duke- 17.7 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 86 blocks

Golden Spikes: Jason Jennings, RHP, Baylor- 13-2, 2.58 ERA, 172 K

Hobey: Jason Krog, C, New Hampshire- 34 G, 51 A

Williams had the all-time NCAA rushing yards mark for all of one year before Dayne broke it, and his pro career has been up and down. Mike Ditka famously gave up almost an entire draft for him, and marijuana problems led to a suspension from the league. He spent a year in the CFL and is back in Miami.

Brand was the #1 overall pick by the Bulls, and now in his 10th NBA season has posted career averages of 20.2 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 2.1 BPG. 

Jennings was drafted 16th overall by Colorado, and has posted a career ERA+ of 97. He was traded from Colorado to Houston before the 2007 season for Taylor Buchholz, Willy Taveras and Jason Hirsh. He spent 2008 with the Texas Rangers where he had an ERA over 8 in 8 appearances. Jennings has also battled injuries in recent years.

Krog’s NHL career got halted by the lockout, when he went to play in Austria and Switzerland. He led his Swiss team in goals with 15. In 2007-2008 Krog returned to the states and won the AHL MVP with the Chicago Wolves while putting up 36 goals and 101 points. He currently is playing for the Manitoba Moose

Advantage: Naismith

1998

Heisman: Charles Woodson, CB, Michigan- 47 tackles, 8 INT, 8.4 PR Avg. 1 TD, 12 catches, 2 TD

Naismith: Antawn Jamison, F, North Carolina- 22.2 PPG, 10.5 RPG

Golden Spikes: Pat Burrell, OF, Miami- .432, 17 HR

Hobey: Chris Drury, F, Boston University- 28G, 29A

Charles Woodson became the first defender to win the Heisman, and did it in one of the most talented classes ever, with both Peyton Manning and Randy Moss (and Ryan Leaf!) being in the ceremony with him. Woodson is currently playing with the Green Bay Packers, and has developed into a good, but by no means shutdown, corner.

Jamison has played with Golden State and Dallas, and currently is playing 2nd/3rd banana to Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler in Washington. For his career he’s averaged just under 20 points and 8 rebounds per game. Jamison had developed a nice outside shot earlier in his career, when he shot around 40% from three a couple times, but that has dropped off.

Burrell is one of the most underappreciated players in baseball. The former first overall pick plays basically no defense, but has a career .367 OBP and has posted just 1 season below average in terms of OPS+. He has walked over 100 times his last two seasons, and the years before that were 98 and 99 respectively.

Drury has won a Little League World Series, Stanley Cup, and Olympic Silver medal. He was awarded the Calder Trophy (rookie of the year) in 1998-99. In 2000-01 with the Colorado Avalanche, Drury had 12 points in the playoffs. From 2000-04 Drury had 11 game winning goals in the playoffs. Drury was traded to Calgary and then to Buffalo, where he almost single-handedly got them to the conference finals, with two game winners in the first round against the Islanders, and a game tying goal with less than 8 seconds left against the Rangers. That offseason he signed a 5 year, $35.35 million deal with the Rangers. Drury currently is just the second American born captain in Rangers history.

Advantage: Hobey

So we’ve finally come to the end of our journey. Let’s total the results.  4 Hobey, 3 Naismith, 3 Golden Spikes 1 Heisman.

At first glance it doesn’t surprise me that just 1 Heisman winner has gone on to have the best pro career. What does surprise me that 3 Golden Spikes winners have. When you look at the elite players in baseball, many of them are players who signed contracts out of high school, and a large portion are also players who were undrafted free agents out of Latin America. Although college hockey is just one feeder system into the NHL, the recent CBA and its resulting salary cap has helped many college players break into the NHL, even players who weren’t on the top line for their respective college teams. 

If Buster Posey eventually puts up the numbers most prospecters believe he will, that should shift the balance in favor of Golden Spikes award winners, but for now I am a little surprised, and I must admit a little proud, at how well Hobey Baker winners stack up with the rest.

* H/t to the intern for getting me Ron Dayne’s stats for his final year at Wisconsin.