One of my favorite things about baseball is that, after 140+ games, it’s pretty easy to look and see who’s a good team and who’s a bad team.  Bad teams can only fake it for so long and good teams eventually get their shit together.  But the wins and losses aren’t the only indicator of a good team.  Many look at a team’s run differential to determine whether a team is any good.  But this too can be a difficult measurement.  As you’ll recall, last year’s Arizona Diamondbacks ended up with a record of 92-70 despite being outscored by 20 runs.  Now many would argue that they were not a good team but simply a lucky one.  After all, they were 32-20 in one run games last year.  So today, just for fun, I would like to look at which teams have a better record than they should by looking at which teams have the best record in one run games.

BTW, the best two teams in the AL and NL last year in run differential?  The Red Sox and the Rockies.

So here we are, the top 5 teams in one run games with their run differentials in parentheses and Baseball Prospectus’ Adjusted Standings:

Milwaukee Brewers: 28-14 (+68), 80-66, +3 wins

Tampa Bay Rays: 27-16 (+85), 80-66, +6 wins

San Francisco Giants: 29-18 (-107), 60-84, +4 wins

Texas Rangers: 27-17 (-69), 66-79, +5 wins

Los Angeles Angels: 28-20 (+62), 78-66, +9 wins

What an odd collection of teams.  Let’s say that every team were to revert to a .500 record in one run games (strictly for argument sake), the Brewers would lose 7 games, but according to BP, they’re only 3 games above their record.  Does this mean that, although they win a lot of one run games, they lose a lot of 2 and 3 run games?  I knew the Rays were playing over their heads, and what do you know, it’s because they’re successful in the close ones (by comparison, the Red Sox are 17-21 in 1-run games).

By the way, I think it’s funny that lousy teams like the Giants and Rangers should be even lousier than they are.

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