Fat guys prefer to hit home runs so that they don't have to run so fast around the bases. Surprised you didn't know that.

It’s time to take a look at the early results from the NL West trades from which I will draw many (unreasonable) conclusions and make claims that will almost certainly fall flat.  At any rate, I’ll start with a big one to get the conversation rolling:

Adam Dunn is having just as big an effect (if not bigger) in Arizona as Manny is having in LA.

Since joining the team, Dunnie has gone 8/26 with 2 HR, 2 2B, 8 RBI, 7Ks, 11 BBs (!) and 7 RS for a line of .307/.487/.667.  Having watched him in depth over the past 8 games, I am amazed at how selective he is.  Even if it’s a bad strike, a strike he won’t be able to do anything with, he won’t swing at it.  And sometimes these bad strikes are called balls by the umps almost because he didn’t swing at it.  You can see the pitchers get frustrated with Dunn and the umps as ball after ball sails past without him taking his bat off his shoulder.  Last night, he didn’t even swing his bat once in a six pitch at bat, even when the count ran 3-2, he just let a close pitch be called a ball and then trotted on down to first.

And if I sound amazed by watching him, you should hear his newe teammates rave.  All of the young hitters in the clubhouse* is trying to emulate his patience.  Hell, I saw Mark Reynolds take two or three borderline pitches for balls last night that he normally would have swung right through.  Let’s not forget that Dunn’s .917 OPS is replacing the soft hitting Alex Romero in right field.  Just look at Arizona’s team stats since the trade, you’ll notice that offensive stats have improved team wide.

Before the trade: Arizona had a line of .253/.325/.438 and a team OPS of .763
Since the trade: Arizona has a line of .261/.382/.487 and a team OPS of .869

This is not to say that the addition of Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers has been any less significant.  Since joining the team, Manny has hit .403 with 6HR and 21 RBI with an OPS of 1.204.  Manny’s bat in the lineup for Los Angeles has been nothing short of transformative.  They have experienced a similar offensive surge:

Before the trade: LA had a line of .260/.325/.390 and a team OPS of .715
Since the trade: LA has a line of .288/.347/.468 and a team OPS of .814

But it appears that the addition of Dunn has allowed Arizona to regain the overall advanatage.  The offensive differences between the two clubs are now a wash but the Snakes have a much better starting rotation and the Dodgers bullpen has given up several leads in the past week (especially since Saito is out).  Jonathan Broxton was a great middle relief pitcher but has not been able to close out games lately.

So now, with the Dbacks holding a two game lead in the division and an easier schedule the rest of the way, I again say that the Snakes have the advantage the rest of the way and should win the division by at least three games.

Unrelated: Mark Reynolds has been taking grounders at second base in preparation for the return of Justin Upton.  The move to second would put Chad Tracy at third, Dunn at first, and Upton in right.  This would be the best possible offensive lineup available (by far) but would probably create one of the worst defensive infields in all of baseball.

The team is taking more pitches and drawing more walks.  Dunnie is setting a good example for the young hitters who are trying to emulate his plate discipline.

*And there are tons of young hitters in Arizona: Mark Reynolds, Chris Young, Alex Romero, Chris Burke, Chris Snyder, Justin Upton

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