Your 2008 NLCS Preview: Mets vs Phillies /sincere

First off, I want to thank the Florida Marlins for making this all possible. After the Mets played mediocre and split a series with Brandon Phillips and the Cincinnati Queens, the Marlins came in and totally redeemed themselves against the Phillies. After losing Friday night, winning two straight to firmly entrench themselves in the collective asses of the Mets and Phillies was very commendable. Now go back to playing your little ballgames, and the Mets will go down and beat your asses next week. All of this brings us to the three game series starting tonight at Shea with the First Place Philadelphia Phillies facing the First Place New York Mets. Since this series is one of those cool three game series and not a cheesy two game or much too long four game series, the winner leaves in First place and the loser leaves in second place, unless of course the Marlins win three straight and the loser leaves in third place and the winner in second. Well, if the Marlins win two out of three, then the loser is in third and the winner is still in first. Anyway, first, second and third are all on the line. Thanks to the ineptitude of the Braves, they have locked up fourth so they are of no concern or consequence. So with all that laid out and made less confusing, let us take a look at the series the world is watching.

So far the Mets are 7-3 against the Phillies this season. Now on paper that looks fantastic and in reality it is, but make no mistake, the Phillies did not make those seven wins very easy. The Phillies are loaded offensively and have the ability to score runs in bunches. It helps them more when they play at Citizens Bank Ballpark. But alas, these games are at Shea so those cheap fly balls that they call home runs will be caught by the epic trio of Beltran, Chavez and Tatis. The Phillies bring some of their most mediocre starters to the mound. Tonight it is Joe Blanton, who is looking to make a nice impression in his Philly debut. Unfortunately for him, that looks doubtful. The Mets counter with Johan Santana. Besides the fact that Johan was embarrassed in his last outing and is most likely looking for revenge, he is also lefty and, well, the Phillies power base is mostly lefty which is going to lead to big time match up issues. To give you an idea. Johan has two starts against the Phillies this year, he has struck out 16 guys in 15 innings, has a 3.00 ERA (not terrific but OK) and the most important stat to me is he has a .179 average against in those games. He will be tough. Blanton is a steady righty but with Reyes, Beltran and Delgado raking and Wright, Easley and Tatis having the ability to handle a not so tough righty, I think the Mets have a good shot.

For game two, the much maligned wife beater Brett Myers returns against John Maine who, if you read Intern Bill’s words on the subject, was the guy traded for Kris Benson along with Jorge Julio. If I didn’t tell you that, you may never ever have known who he is. Except for the fact that he has pitched successfully in the postseason and won 15 games last year. But I digress. If any game has 10-9 written all over it, it’s this one. Maine has had some rough outings lately and he throws a lot of pitches. Even if he does keep the Phillie line up at bay, he may only go for 5 or 6 innings. I have a feeling Utley and Howard may do some damage here. But all that damage is nothing compared to the ass raping the Met lineup is going to give Myers. Mr. I Wanna be A Closer is none to pleased that the Phillies just signed Lidge for 3 years. And while Myers gets his fair share of strikeouts, he also has shown the propensity to meltdown under pressure. Having to contend with Reyes on the base paths and Beltran and Delgado at the plate might be too much. This could go to the bullpen early and if that happens, it may negate the good things that JC Romero and Lidge bring to the table. I see the Mets squeaking out this tight game.

Game three brings the best pitching match up. Maybe not on paper but in the reality of these two teams. Lefty Jamie Moyer and his 72 MPH fastball take on flame throwing lefty Big Game Oliver Perez. For some reason the Mets can’t hit Moyer worth a shit. The only one who can, oddly enough is Carlos Delgado, a lefty, who owns him. Now, while the Mets have at least one guy that maybe able to handle Moyer, the Phillies have no one for Perez. In three starts Ollie is 1-0 with a 0.00ERA and .169 Avg against in 18 1/3 innings. He makes Ryan Howard look like an absolute fool. And considering this is a day game on Thursday after a night game, I could see Charlie Manuel giving Ryan a day off. This is the game I think the Power of Tatis comes into play. With Moyer on the mound, I could see Tatis having a field day. He owns lefties. This also maybe a game where pain in the ass Jayson Werth gets involved. If this game is tied late, he is one of those guys that gets to the Mets and their bullpen. I don’t think it will get to that though, as Charlie Manuel double switches out Pat Burrell and Jamie Moyer in the sixth for Geoff Jenkins and Rudy Seanez, because Moyer is throwing a 2 hitter and he wants to get some defense in there. Does that make any sense? No, but Charlie will do it anyway. Burrell doesn’t mind it.

So in my own impartial way (stop laughing) I see the Mets sweeping this series. But of course, it won’t be an easy sweep. Truthfully, these are two very evenly matched teams. Both of whom have flaws and strengths. I think the Mets biggest strength right now is starting pitching which is also the Phillies biggest weakness. It is the difference maker in this series and the division. For the Phillies, the impact of Blanton and Myers will say a lot about their chances. For the Mets, the ability of Wagner and Heilman to get it done when it counts will say a lot about them and their chances. Of course, the Marlins could wind up telling both of them where they stand. I doubt it, but who knows. It has been a crazy year. Any way you shake it, the NL East is exciting and this division title will not be easy to win. For the Marlins and Phillies.