Of course the Reds are responsible for the worst free agent signing of the offseason. Francisco “CoCo” Cordero was signed to a 4 year/$46 M contract. He is a 33 ye
ar old closer with lights out stuff, and he’s also a luxury that a team that won’t be good for two years absolutely does not need nor can afford. By the time the Reds might be ready to contend, the team has to hope Cordero is one of the very few closers who stays great past his 35th birthday (Hoffman, Rivera, Eckersley — basically they have to hope he’s a HOF-talent), or else, his contract will be a giant albatross around the team’s neck. The length of the contract is definitely a concern, but with a 172 ERA+, at least he’s pitching well this year, right? Wrong. If we turn to WPA, we see that Cordero has only offered -.05 WPA so far this season. First, a definition:
WPA (win probability added): WPA is the difference in win expectancy (WE) between the start of the play and the end of the play. That difference is then credited/debited to the batter and the pitcher. Over the course of the season, each players’ WPA for individual plays is added up to get his season total WPA.
Second, WPA is a descriptive (and not predictive) statistic, so a -.05 WPA in the 1st half of the season doesn’t mean CoCo should finish with -.1 WPA. However, it does mean that on the whole, CoCo has done more to help the Reds lose than to help them win this season.
How can a guy with a 172 ERA+ have a negative WPA? Easy. By pitching in 10 games where the Reds were either up 3 (or more) or down 3 (or more), he was able to pile up stats in completely meaningless, low leverage situations. A lot of this is just terrible bullpen management (Hey Dusty!), but check out his game log. Nearly 1/3 of CoCo’s innings occured in games that were o-v-e-r. Is that the best use of a $46 M closer?
If you’re paying a guy $11.5 M to be your best reliever, use him when he’s most needed. How many games do you have to lose in the 7th inning with Stormy Weathers on the bump before you bring in your best guy? I realize this flies in the face of conventional baseball wisdom, but bullpen mismanagement is my biggest pet peeve (even bigger than having a .294 OBP guy hitting leadoff) in baseball. 7th inning, bases loaded, 0 outs in a 2-1 game is high leverage. 7-4 in the ninth with 0 outs is just about as low leverage as it gets. This signing is easily the worst of the offseason, but there’s still time to salvage some value from it…IF THE REDS WOULD USE HIM WHEN IT FUCKING MATTERS.
One last bit of fun: CoCo has thrown 34.2 out of the Reds 739 total innings (4.7%), while eating up 12.2% of the payroll. Now that’s bang for your buck!
i dunno, andruw jones’ is still worse even though it’s shorter. and i say the torii hunter signing will be an anchor perhaps as early as next year.
The LA teams both decided to crap on their teams this year by making awful signings. I’m so grateful.
Coco is Fracisco’s nickname? That’s the best, most original name people could come up with? Poo!
Nice job, Nick. If I may tho, it is reasonable to say he has pitched well, just has been used poorly, correct?