NFL Preview…The Dregs, Part 7: NFC South

This is where the difference between the NFC and AFC starts to show, just like the NL versus the AL. The AFC has two divisions that are top heavy, and the tops of the AFC East and West are HEAVY, and two divisions that are stacked top to bottom with teams that will most likely play a factor in the playoff race. The NFC has one stacked division, two are top heavy with meh (NFC West and North) and one is a balanced division with no really good teams (NFC South…which we’ll cover today).

The NFC South has a few intriguing teams, all with the potential to be pretty decent squads, yet are chock full of questions and not a whole lot of depth, and one team that’s been so destroyed by years of bad drafting and off-field incidents that they probably won’t contend until at least 2010. There are some top-end players here, unfortunately, there are also some massive holes on said teams which will require these premier players to really rise to the occasion or else these teams will flounder.

Believe it or not, I’m actually planning on focusing on this division during the year with a lot of interest because it truly is up for grabs amongst the top three teams, so you know it’s going to be a tight race. Plus, there are some pretty decent coaches in this division, so there will be some decent play…unfortunately, this division is also home to three of the most awful aesthetic NFL experiences in Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans, so while the play might be decent, the product on our televisions will be pretty hard to watch.

JAMBALAYA!!!

Tampa Bay Buccos: The Bucs have a pretty decent squad, aside from their OL and QB situations, and even those are good enough to make the playoffs. Jeff Garcia isn’t a bad QB for this offense, and barring the Fickle One’s ultimate destination, he should be more than a quality option provided he can stay on the field, I mean, let’s face it, I’m normal sized and I dwarf the guy…but then again, a Playmate of the Year is getting his pecker wet, so I’m jealous. He’s got some pretty good targets, including the ageless Joey Galloway, who, despite tearing BOTH ACL’s, can still run faster than a Mini Cooper…seriously, this guy is a fucking FREAK and he’s one helluva player. I like their stable of RB’s because they fit this scheme like a glove and we all know the offense is about as well versed in the West Coast offense as humanly possible because, whether you like him or not, Jon Gruden is a fantastic offensive coach.

But this defense has definitely caught my attention. Despite my bias against the bland Cover 2 defenses, the NFC is loaded with squads who are phenomenal at executing it. There’s only one great AFC team that runs this style well in Indy, but the NFC has Minny, Chicago and Tampa, and Tampa, while lacking the star power of the previously mentioned units, is the most effective of the group. Phillip Buchanon is one of the best safeties in the league and was born to play in this style, and when Derrick Brooks shows no signs of ever sucking, and the defensive line has a bunch of hungry vets coupled with a burgeoning star in Gaines Adams, well, it’s just a fantastic group.

What’s the drawback for this team? Probably special teams…which is usually a staple for Cover 2 teams because they don’t have the freak LB’s that more aggressive teams have in spades. It’s a tradeoff here, you either get the small, athletic LB’s that can play in space or you get the big, fast, bulldozer types that can blow up a guard. There’s no great return man for the Buccos, and numerous teams have made due, it’s still a weakness, but Tampa is a pretty solid team as a whole, and they’ll have make it work some way…

Prediction: …but not this year…sorry. 7-9.

New Orleans Saints: This offense is fantastic, with the best QB in the division, perhaps the conference, throwing to a versatile group of WR’s and a sparkling new TE who will fit this offense like a glove. Hell, even Reggie Bush, while not LaDanian Tomlinson, is a good option to throw to out of the backfield, and provided Deuce McAllister is healthy, will have a better year on the ground, plus is a dangerous return man. While I don’t think he’ll have a Marshall Faulk type influence, he’s still going to contribute…just not $9 million worth. Plus, he doesn’t need to, what with Marques Colston and Shockey opening up the field. Actually…this is just wild speculation, but if those two can spread the field out, Bush will have open space to operate, so let’s see if he can make the most out of it. The OL is nothing special though, outside of Jamaal Brown who has a few-Pro-Bowl ceiling.

Sedrick Ellis and Jonathan Vilma join a shitty defense, but the defensive line is now pretty stacked with Will Smith and Charles Grant being pretty good players. The secondary, though, is a major issue. Hell, secondary might even be a generous word for them, as TOAST would probably be more accurate. Let’s look at differing defensive philosophies real quick…Pittsburgh hasn’t had good secondary players in their 3-4 incarnation (yes, Troy Polamalu included considering he’s a glorified LB) yet because they bring the heat like nothing else, so much that it’s ingrained in their character, they can get away with it because the QB has only a split second to make a decision and their offense stays on the field for huge chunks of time with a great running game. Same with New England. And this is why I’m not overly concerned with the Browns’ predicament at CB. New Orleans doesn’t bring that much pressure, and because of that, they’ll always give up giant chunks of yardage against better passing teams until they get the personnel required to match up with better downfield threats. And they simply don’t have that right now, so you can’t be confident.

Sean Payton is a good coach, and the defense should be better against the run, but I’m sorry, unless the DL gets some serious pressure on the QB, they’re just not going to be good enough on this side. Every game is a shootout, just like 2006, and that’s a lot of pressure on an offense that simply doesn’t have the players to dominate the time of possession battle.

Prediction: To be honest, I have no idea what to make of this team. High ceiling, but outside of winning a bunch of games 38-35, I just don’t see them being that successful outside of a first round playoff exit. 8-8.

Carolina Panthers: Julius Peppers is a freak of nature that is unparalleled in terms of pure athleticism. He’s a shredded 290 lbs. and can run like a gazelle and gets off the line so fucking fast, while being as strong as a horse, he’s like some scary, hybrid, hrose-gazelle-tiger-gorilla-shark. So then why did he suck so bad last year? Beats the hell out of me…and everyone else, apparently. And outside of him and Jon Beason, I’m not really fond of this defense. But Peppers is the kind of player that can single-handedly change games, so if he has a dominant year, like he’s fully capable of, this defense can be pretty fuckin’ good.

The offense, on the other hand, is actually pretty good. Jeff Otah is a beast, and by all accounts, is standing out on the line with training camp performances where he pancaked Tyler Brayton multiple times consecutively. Jonathan Stewart is the power back that John Fox needed, and when coupled with DeAngelo Williams, is a scary combination because of their contrasting styles. Jake Delhomme should be healthy again, which is sweet music to Steve Smith’s ears. Unfortunately, Dwayne Jarrett looks like he’s going to continue the legacy of AWFUL USC players in the NFL…when are teams going to learn? Guys with no work ethic, no breakaway speed and a lazy attitude towards route running (OTHER Steve Smith excluded) are probably going to disappoint at a level where all those things are crucial to being successful. But play action should be there for the taking because the running game is where this team will hang it’s hat.

I’m feeling this team this year, like everyone does every year, but until they put it together, it’s just too risky a basket to place your eggs.

Prediction: Playoff team this year, I just got a feeling. 10-6.

Atlanta Falcons: OK…there is almost nothing to talk about on both sides of the ball aside from Michael Turner and Roddy White. This team is not good, and while my last preview was heavy on the Detroit Lions hate, this is probably the worst team in the NFL. So instead of looking at this team’s faults, let’s look at how they got there, which also couples as a blueprint for how NFL teams get bad.

First thing…multiple years of TERRIBLE drafting. Michael Jenkins, while authoring one of my favorite moments in Ohio State football history, is simply a poor NFL WR. The offensive line is patchwork, at best, because the Falcons neglected these positions with high draft picks, rather resting their hopes on the prospective talents of late round picks. The secondary is poor, and considering their best draft pick that wasn’t Michael Vick, DeAngelo Hall, turned out to be a diva of epic proportions and was shipped out for scraps, this team has nobody to match up with even marginal WR’s. Then they go out and draft Matt Ryan, a poor QB prospect with a low ceiling that now makes more money than both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady and then move up to draft a LT in Sam Baker, a LT prospect with suspect athleticism and awful measurables, poor technique, no mean streak and a history of injuries, leading one to believe that this team really has no idea what they’re doing in the draft. Rosters don’t get this shitty without some serious negligence when it comes to drafting…and it’s something I’m well versed in after living through the Butch Davis years here in Cleveland. It’s a mirror fucking image people, and if Phil Savage hadn’t drafted like a bat out of hell for three consecutive years, hitting on nearly 65% of his draft picks and making shrewd free agency moves, the Browns would still be mired in bullshit.

The other? The Michael Vick saga. If last year proved anything, it’s that Michael Vick was the best SINGULAR player in the NFL. I will go to my deathbed believing this, because without him, the team wouldn’t have a single chance in any game they played. The fact that the Falcons’ offensive schemes were so misguided made people believe that Vick was terrible, but seriously, he wasn’t ever going to be a fantastic passer, so why have him trying to make short passes and not be a threat to run and try and be a 70% completion QB? The bottom line was Vick gave them a chance, all by himself, every time he had the ball, and if the retards running the team didn’t try to put Vick’s square peg into a round hole, they would’ve been incredibly more successful, hell, he led this shit to THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME only 3 years ago…that’s a feat if I’ve ever seen one.

Sure, you might disagree, but I was/am a huge Vick fan, and it’s just my opinion, so fuck off. But at the same time, he changed the way defenses play this team completely, and now that he’s gone, this is the worst team in the NFL, and that fact is pretty indisputable. His absence has set this team back a half decade, all by himself, though it was his own fault. Hell, they already shot themselves in the foot by giving up a ton of high picks just to get him, and while he paid dividends, they NEED him out there in order for it to be worth it. So that’s how this team got where they are now, and of course this was all aided by Arthur Blank being a clueless, douchebag owner, so…yea, that’s the Falcons.

Prediction: Dregs? Dregs. 1-15. Actually, there’s a pretty solid chance that this might be the first winless team since the Creamsicle Buccos back in the day.

Up next: Last call…NFC West.