Major League Jerk

I haven’t mentioned this in awhile because I didn’t want to pile on, but I totally won the bet I made with The Big Lead a few months back.  As you’ll recall, I took exception to his saying that a few small market teams who were performing well would fall out of it by July 1st, that is,  all three teams would be at or below .500 by tomorrow.

You know what, let’s try to recreate the feel a bit.  Let’s put on our mid May shoes for a second and try to remember what the world was like a month and a half ago.

The average gallon of gas across the nation was less than $3.79.

The Cavs beat the Celtics to tie their best of 7 series at two games a piece.

And an earthquake in China killed more than 60,000 people.

Back on May 12th the standings looked like this:

Tampa: 22-16; .5 game out of first
Florida: 23-15; 2.5 game lead in the division
Oakland: 23-16; .5 game lead in the division

Remember, the bet was that all three teams would be at or below .500 on July 1st.

Today, the standings look like this:

Tampa: 49-32; .5 game lead in division
Florida: 42-39; 1 game out of first
Oakland: 44-37; 4.5 games back of first

Pretty shocking right?  Tampa has gone 27-16 which means they actually improved their pace (.579 win percentage before May 12th; .628 win percentage after).  Oakland played .500 ball for that month and a half and Florida fell off the table a bit.

Today, Tampa has a half game lead over the Red Sox and a run differential of +55.  They’ve outperformed my expectations and a lot of this has to do with Scott Kazmir’s impressive pitching.

Dare I make a few predictions of my own?  Nothing too bold.  I will say that I think Tampa will win the Wild Card and the Marlins will finish with a losing record.  The A’s will finish above .500 and might even have a better record than the winner of the NL West.  That’s all I can manage right now.  I’m too busy trying to figure out what to do with $30 worth of itunes cash.