Major League Jerk

A lot has been made about the strength of schedule “problem” in Major League Baseball. It’s probably the biggest argument against interleague play out there when you consider that teams within a division aren’t playing the same schedule due to “Natural Rivalries” that MLB has created. We’ve touched on it here before and I have to ask again, how fair is it that the Dodgers have to face the Angels for six games but the Padres only have to face the Mariners?

But how big of a deal is it? Within a division, a large variance in SOS could have an effect on the playoffs. But overall is it a big enough problem that it needs to be fixed? And if so would a RPI system based on strength of schedule be the answer?

I guess I’m responding a little bit to this article posted on The Big Lead yesterday that basically stipulates that teams like the Padres got screwed out of the playoffs last year because they’re RPI was higher than teams like the Rockies and the DBacks. [The formula for RPI: 25% record, 50% opponents record, 25% opponent's opponent's record.] The Padres and the Rockies, as you’ll undoubtedly recall, were tied at the end of the season and had to play a one game playoff that the Rockies won when Trevor Hoffman blew a save.

My question is: at what point does strength of schedule become circular logic? Of course a team that isn’t very good is going to have a higher SOS than a team within that division which is good. If the Pirates have to play the Cubs 20 times a season, then the Pirates’ SOS is going to be higher than the Cubs who have to only play the Pirates 20 times a season. AL teams had higher SOS than NL teams last year because the competition in the AL was far superior last year. This was reflected in the World Series when the Rockies got knocked on their asses by the Red Sox.

So yeah, the Padres had a higher RPI than the Dbacks and the Rockies because they’re SOS was higher and their opponents were similar enough to not offset that portion of the formula. You know what the Dbacks record against the Padres was last year? 10-8. You know what the Rockies record against the Padres was last year? 11-8. Did those two teams deserve to get into the playoffs over the Padres? Sure looks like it to me.

But strength of schedule is a subject that is worth exploring because it does have playoff implications. The teams within the toughest divisions often seem penalized because their level of competition is higher. This year, a great Phillies team has to contend with good Braves and Marlins teams in addition to an average team like the Mets. The Dbacks on the other hand are feasting on NL West opponents who are awful and getting killed by everyone else in the league.

Right now, the Cardinals have a two game lead over the Marlins for the Wild Card. I’m not sure if I think the Cardinals are better than the Marlins, but it’s not a big enough problem for me that I think the system needs to be fixed. The Marlins play in a better division, but I doubt it’s two whole games better than the NL Central this early in the season.

Does the system need changing? To me it looks like it has worked out well since the addition of the Wild Card. Anyone wanna tell me the Red Sox weren’t the best team in baseball last year? After them it was probably the Indians. Two years ago was a boring World Series when the Cardinals won it despite their lousy record (the Phillies did not make the playoffs that year despite having a better record than the division winning Cardinals). But did they not deserve to go? They won all three of their postseason series. Is that not enough evidence? Was there a team more deserving in 2006 or 2007 that didn’t make the playoffs? I know this is results bases analysis (which I’m on the fence about), but what greater evidence do we have when looking at the past?

I’m looking for a reason to think the system is broken. If we consider that the Wild Card team is often undeserving because it is more likely to come from a division where the competition is weaker (presumably) can we come up with a specific instance where a team undeservedly made the playoffs when another team stood a better chance to succeed? Last year, the NL Wild Card came from the NL West and swept its way to the World Series. In the AL, the Yankees were 4 games up on the next closest competitor. In 2006 the Wild Card Tigers were the AL Champs.

If anything, rankings of divisions or teams through strength of schedule or RPI serves only to predict which team will advance the farthest in the playoffs and is a way of assessing how good a team really is (for gambling?). If a team is in 2nd or 3rd place in a good division, then we might hold that team in higher regard than a team that is dominating a lousy division. Nothing more. Same thing for RPI. I think it’s a nice indicator of what team is playing well against tougher opponents but I don’t think the current playoff system has made mistakes (large enough mistakes?) to call for a change.

In fact, in looking at ESPN’s RPI chart, I see a ton of mistakes right off the bat. The Brewers have the fourth highest RPI (run differential of -7) and the Angels have the fifth (only a +7 RD). The Brewers play in a pretty good division, but the Angels don’t. Anybody really think the Brewers are better than the Marlins or the Phillies? Same question for the Angels. This is the chart we want deciding who makes the playoffs? This chart has the Pirates ranked higher than the Phillies.

So if the system isn’t broken, then what’s the point in these rankings? Isn’t this just academic masturbation? Aren’t we arguing a false problem in order to make a big deal out of something that isn’t broken in the first place? Can you think of anyone besides obsessive compulsives with a knowledge of Excel or Padres fans who think San Diego should have made the playoffs last year? They may have had a beef because Holliday didn’t touch homeplate on the final play of the game, but there were still no outs in the inning and Hoffman was pitching like shit that night.

But for good measure (and also because I like academic masturbation) here are my rankings of the divisions in order:

Three Good Divisions:

AL East: The best division in baseball, the AL East not coincidentally has two of the best teams in all of baseball. The Red Sox and Rays have dominated other teams both within and without their division this year. The Blue Jays are the best third place team in baseball and the Yankees are in dead last. If the Yankees are the worst team in your division, then you’re doing something right. As a group the AL East have a win/loss differential of +24 and a run differential of +74.

NL East: The best division in the National League, the NL East houses four contenders. If the Wild Card doesn’t come from this division I will be surprised. The Phillies are an offensive juggernaut with above average pitching. Same thing for the Marlins. The Braves are a great team at home and an awful team on the road and the Mets are playing well below their abilities. Only the Nationals stink in this division. As a group, the NL East has a W/L differential of +8 and a RD of +70.

NL Central: The prize of this division is obviously the Chicago Cubs who have the best record in all of baseball. The Cubs have the best hitting in the NL and the second best pitching. The Cardinals are a great second place team and the lower tier teams provide good competition. As a group, the NL Central has a W/L differential of +26 and a RD of +55.

Three Not So Good Divisions:
AL West: This division is misleadingly bad. The Angels are playing way ahead of themselves. Their run differential is a mere +7 and their adjusted record is 30-29. The Rangers have a great offense but their pitching is awful (28th in all of baseball) and the Mariners are lousy in all categories including fielding. As a group, the AL West has a W/L differential of 0 and a RD of -29.

AL Central: The White Sox aren’t fooling anyone as a division leader and no one among the rest of the division is making a charge to take over the top spot. If Carlos Quentin didn’t play in this division, there’s a chance that all five of the teams would be at .500 or below. As a group, the AL Central has a W/L differential of -23 and a RD of -35.

NL West: Without a doubt the worst division in all of baseball, this comes as a surprise since many thought this division might be the best before the season started. The Diamondbacks jumped out to a hot start and their offense once led the league in RS but since then, their bats have gone cold. Joe Torre seems to have had little effect on the youngsters in Los Angeles. The Padres have suffered from injuries and a dire lack of offense and the Giants have nothing but Tim Lincecum. As a group, the NL West has a W/L differential of -45 (!) and a RD of -125 (!!!).