Major League Jerk

One of my favorite things about baseball is the feeling of hope; the “wait til next year” attitude that allows perpetual losers to continue to come back for more. I look at Tamba Bay and Arizona-two teams that had lost over 100 games in a season within the last few years and now both are contending due to strong minor league systems. Players like Stephen Drew, Justin and BJ Upton, Evan Longoria: these are guys who were drafted within the last few years and are already contributing to their teams. But that isn’t always the case. I remember Matt Bush who was the #1 pick for San Diego in 2004. This is a guy who has failed as both a SS and a pitcher. So yeah, there are risks and there are rewards. Maybe there’ll be another Mike Piazza taken this year (chosen in the 62nd round). At any rate, we will also be live blogging the draft on Saturday, June 7th, so feel free to join in.

Guest Contributor Fetch 9 wrote this up. He made his choices based on best overall talent, a team’s willingness to sign an expensive pick (Tampa, Arizona, Baltimore, Boston-all willing to pay above slot price); a team’s tendency to play it safe by choosing college guys with experience but little additional upside (Kansas City, Oakland, St. Louis); a team’s repeated unwillingness to spend money (Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Houston); and a team’s willingness to gamble on a high school kid (Florida, Cincinnati, Washington).

So, without further ado…

1. Tampa Bay Rays – Tim Beckham; SS; Griffin High School; Griffin, Georgia. Florida State catcher Buster Posey is the most talked about player here, and for good reason. He hit two homeruns in FSU’s ACC Tournament opener against Wake Forest to raise his season total to 19. However, Posey plays in perhaps the best offensive environment in college baseball, and the Rays have taken a lot of high schoolers in the first round. Bring in Tim Beckham, who undoubtedly has the highest upside of anyone in this draft. With their newfound status as a contender, the Rays can afford to wait for Beckham to be MLB ready.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates – Pedro Alvarez; 3B; Vanderbilt. Alvarez was a favorite to go as high as #1 overall as soon as he stepped on campus, and he hasn’t disappointed. Alvarez set Vanderbilt’s single season record for home runs, and he hasn’t looked back. A broken bone in his hand has hindered his power somewhat, and could be a red flag, but Alvarez looks to be the best power bat in this draft, no questions asked.

3. Kansas City Royals – Justin Smoak; 1B; South Carolina. Described by Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein as a switch hitting Justin Morneau with gold glove defense at first, the Royals take Smoak, who should move quickly, to form an impressive hitting core along with Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Smoak could end up being the best “pure hitter” out of this class.

4. Baltimore Orioles – Bryan Matusz; LHP; San Diego. Well here goes my (little) credibility: If I had the #1 overall pick, Matusz would be my man. A tall lefty with four average to plus pitches, Matusz is another guy who, like Alvarez, was pegged to go way up here as soon as he stepped on campus. The fact that he has done nothing to disappoint, especially as a pitcher, is very impressive to me. The Orioles like going with college bats, and their system is surprisingly deep pitching wise, but rumor has it they’ve been on Matusz for quite some time.

5. San Francisco Giants – Buster Posey, C, Florida State. Admittedly this pick is lifted from MiLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo. The Giants need so much help that it’s hard to narrow down where they should go. Obviously the Giants need a bat, and as I already mentioned, Posey is a good bet to be an above average big league bat as a catcher. Certainly better than having Bengie Molina hit cleanup, no?

6. Florida Marlins – Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri. Crow has no doubt been reminding Mizzou fans of Max Scherzer all season. The tall righty has an interesting mix of pitches, and a sort of funky delivery. Another thing funky about him is his fastball, which touched 98 last summer in the Cape Cod League. The Marlins appear to be looking at college hitters, but with a pitcher with Crow’s stuff on the board, will they be able to pass?

7. Cincinnati Reds – Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia. The other Beckham has been one of the best hitters in the country all year. While there is some doubt about his ability to stay at short, he at the very least will be a good defensive second baseman. Beckham seems like the type of player the A’s would love to pick, but if Crow goes the pick before, Beckham seems like the best bet here, adding an impact middle infielder to the Reds system.

8. Chicago White Sox – Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona St. With apologies to Ike Davis, Wallace is the best pro prospect in the Pac-10. Although he is playing third this year for ASU, Wallace will probably end up as a first baseman in the majors. But no worries, his bat has more than enough to carry him there. I don’t know why, but purely offensively Wallace reminds me of Nick Swisher.

9. Washington Nationals – Aaron Hicks; OF/RHP; Woodrow Wilson HS; Long Beach, California. Hicks is a toolsy kid who oozes upside. The main problem with him is he insists he wants to play outfield professionally, and not pitch, even though he sits at 93 and can touch 95. There are some questions about his bat, but he for sure will be a plus defender.

10. Houston Astros – Kyle Skipworth; C; Patriot HS; Riverside, California. The Astros need players who will get there in a hurry. Skipworth won’t but his upside is too much to pass up. Skipworth has been rumored to go to the Marlins and the Nationals, but if he gets by both the Astros should nab the top prep catcher, even though they already have JR Towles.

11. Texas Rangers – Christian Friedrich; LHP; Eastern Kentucky. Pitching, pitching, pitching. Those are the Rangers’ three priorities in order. Friedrich is the best college lefty besides Matusz. There are rumors that the Rangers could take a high school arm, but I think they’ll want someone who can move a little more quickly

12. Oakland A’s – Shooter Hunt; RHP; Tulane. The best (draft eligible) pitcher in Conference USA, Hunt is the type of player the A’s love to draft. Hunt is yet another quick riser who will help bolster an already tremendous A’s farm system. Is he the next Joe Blanton? Perhaps.

13. St. Louis – Eric Hosmer; 1B; American Heritage HS; Plantation, Florida. How did he fall this far? Two words: Scott Boras. While BP’s Kevin Goldstein insists there isn’t a Rick Porcello type situation out there this year, if there is one Hosmer is it. But still, at 13 I think the Cardinals will open up the checkbook and ink the best high school bat in the draft.

14. Minnesota – Reese Havens; SS; South Carolina. Even though I’m a Twins fan, trying to figure out which direction they will go in is a shot in the dark. Ben Revere, last year’s first round pick, wasn’t in Baseball America’s Top 100, yet he has done nothing but hit since making it to pro ball. For a team lacking middle infielders, Havens is a perfect fit.

15. Los Angeles – Ethan Martin; RHP; Stephens County HS; Toccoa, Georgia. Had to take him since his high school is my namesake. The Dodgers love their prepsters, it’s just a matter of guessing whether they take an arm or a bat. If an arm it should be Martin, but it could be Illinois prepster Jake Ordorizzi.

16. Milwaukee – Jemile Weeks; 2B; Miami. The Brewers are another tough team to peg. Weeks hasn’t really been in the conversation this high, but his athleticism, bat and bloodlines could entice Milwaukee to take Rickie’s little brother to save some cash after spending on Matt LaPorta last year.

17. Toronto – Yonder Alonso; 1B; Miami. Back to back Hurricanes as Alonso makes an unlikely slide to 17. I would love to see the Twins take him at 14 if he falls even that far, but his skill set fits what Toronto looks for to a T. Although he is a first baseman, Alonso’s potential to have a .400+ OBP at the Major League Level could lead him to be a top of the order type hitter.

18. New York Mets – Andrew Cashner; RHP; TCU. The Mets have made a little habit of drafting potential relievers in the first round. After the Johan Santana trade virtually decimated their system, the Mets are in need of both arms and bats. They could go with Georgia reliever Joshua Fields, but Cashner could potentially be a starter as well, increasing his value.

19. Chicago Cubs – Ryan Perry; RHP; Arizona. Perry, like Cashner, could be starting. If nothing else, he could be a reliever who could get to Chicago early in 2009 to help Wood, Marmol and company at the back end of the pen

20. Seattle – Tim Melville, RHP, Holt HS; Missouri. Once in the discussion to go as high as #3 to Kansas City, mainly because of his hometown, Melville nonetheless is an impressive package. Melville sits at 93 and can touch 96 with his fastball, not to mention he complements that with what projects to be an above average curveball and changeup.

21. Detroit – Jason Castro; C; Stanford. A draft eligible Sophomore, Castro has been on helium watch the whole year. The Tigers have broken the bank in the past few years, most notably spending 7 million on prepster Rick Porcello last year, and this is a perfect opportunity to save money while filling an organizational hole at the same time.

22. New York Mets – Brett Lawrie; C/3B; Brookswood; Langley, British Colombia. Scouts are all over the map as to where Lawries eventual position will be, which could end up endearing him to the Mets, as he could fill a number of organizational holes. With multiple first rounders, the Mets already grabbed their quick mover in Cashner, and now add a pure athlete in Lawrie.

23. San Diego – Allan Dykstra; 3B; Wake Forest. Dykstra is from the San Diego area, so hopefully the Padres don’t get flashbacks of Matt Bush, the local product they took #1 overall in 2004. Dykstra has a ton of power, and the Padres would enjoy it if he turned out as well as the last Wake product they drafted, Matt Antonelli.

24. Philadelphia – Anthony Hewitt; SS; Salisbury School; Salisbury, Connecticut. The Phillies are another team that loves pure athletes, and Hewitt is the best one of this class, even though a quick Google search reveals he shares his name with a famous pianist. As is the case with most back of the first round guys, Hewitt’s stock has been rapidly rising.

25. Colorado – Jake Ordorizzi; RHP; Highland HS; Highland, Illinois. Some have Ordorizzi as the top high school arm in the draft. A loose and lanky kid, Ordorizzi can throw up to 95 with his fastball, although his better moving two seamer sits around 91. Ordorizzi is a pure athlete, he sports a 6.7 60 and was also a football star, and that athleticism should help him pitch in the big leagues.

26. Arizona – David Cooper; 1B; Cal. One of the better hitters in the country, Cooper sports a .461 OBP and a 14.3% walk rate. He’s definitely not a tools guy. In fact he’s one of the slower prospects in this draft class. If that doesn’t scare off the D-Backs, they should be able to nab one of the better pure power hitters in the class.

27. Minnesota – Ike Davis; 1B/OF; Arizona St. Could I have put Davis at 26 for Hef? Yes, but that would have been way too easy. The bottom line, though, is Davis can flat rake and the Twins would be foolish to ignore that, regardless of any issues they have with his athleticism. Davis would be a great pick to eventually replace Michael Cuddyer in right field.

28. New York Yankees – Tanner Scheppers; RHP; Fresno St. A stress fracture in his arm dropped Scheppers like a rock. Once thought to be a top 10 type talent, now there’s no telling where he’ll go. My guess is the Yankees will pony up enough cash to get him on the Andrew Brackman rehab plan.

29. Cleveland – Connor Gillaspie; 3B; Wichita State. Gillespie’s miniscule K rate (8.6%) is somewhat a product of his competition, but it also is the epitome of the hitters Cleveland is trying to bring in. He’s not a true power guy, but he did have a good OBP, and he seems to be the virtual opposite of Andy Marte, who is now languishing on the bench.

30. Boston – Jordan Danks; OF; Texas. I don’t necessarily think Danks will go here, but I put him here because I believe he deserves to. Even though the prodigious power that was predicted out of him hasn’t been there, Danks can play a true centerfield as well as have a .400+ OBP at the major league level. At the very least, Danks is a better prospect than former Longhorn Drew Stubbs whom Cincinnati took 8th in 2006. I suppose I should add the caveat that due to the nature of the MLB draft, if I get even a handful of these right I’ll be pretty excited. Not to mention if Tampa goes with Posey instead of Beckham the rest of my first round could be absolutely screwed. But thanks to Hef and the other 100 people on the Major League Jerk crew, and hopefully this isn’t a total disaster to sully up the family atmosphere.